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Sir Alex’ last few seasons at Manchester United | blogjou

David Sumpter

Soccermatics

p. 282
03 Feb 2023

Sir Alex' last few seasons at Manchester United


Reading the analyses Sam performed during his time working at Opta, it is clear that he made good use of their extensive data sets. An article he wrote in 2013 about Manchester Unites’s shot conversion was particularly revealing. During Alex Fergusons last few seasons at the club, United had fewer shots than their title rivals, but they scored from more of the chances they created. Using ‘expected goals’ Sam showed that United scored more because they were shooting centrally, in positions that were more likely to result in a goal. Howver, he also suggested that even accounting for their better shooting position, their success was unsustainable.

Sam’s prediction proved correct. The next season, under new manager David Moyes, United’s shoot conversion dropped dramatically and they finished 7th in the Premier League. To analysts looking at United underlying numbers this change in fortune did not come a big surprise.