|
SoccermaticsDavid Sumpter |
Omar has proved a lot of myths to be wrong or misleading.
Omar has proved a lot of myths to be wrong or misleading. ‘Teams hoping to get promoted from the Championship should employ players with experience of playing in that league’ is not true if you look at the numbers. ‘Managers should get their teams to play more aggressively’ is an unqualifiable and meaningless statement. ‘The wage bill in the Premier League team determines results’ is only true for the gap between the ‘big six’ and the rest of the league. Teams outside the big six can do well on smaller budgets. ‘The success of Spain and Barcelona means that clubs should look for shorter players’ is no established by research. Instead, there is a risk that teams get caught up in a rush to follow fads. Myth after myth fails when Omar starts to do his statistical checks.
Sir Alex' last few seasons at Manchester United
Reading the analyses Sam performed during his time working at Opta, it is clear that he made good use of their extensive data sets. An article he wrote in 2013 about Manchester Unites’s shot conversion was particularly revealing. During Alex Fergusons last few seasons at the club, United had fewer shots than their title rivals, but they scored from more of the chances they created. Using ‘expected goals’ Sam showed that United scored more because they were shooting centrally, in positions that were more likely to result in a goal. Howver, he also suggested that even accounting for their better shooting position, their success was unsustainable.
Is it really the referees only?
I very much doubt that FIFA will redraw the penalty area. Instead, referees already attempt to compensate for its poor current design. 61% of the penalties are awarded in the 18 yard by 20 yard area found by extending forward from the six-yard box to the edge of the penalty box. The other 39% are awarded in the two 18 yard by 12 yard areas on either side. That makes the probability per square yard of bein awarded a penalty in a central area 2.1 times greater than the probability of being awarded one on the outer edges. Penalties on the edges of the box are exceptions rather than the rule.
About Bill Shankley's immortal words
It was the former Liverpool manager Bill Shankley who wpoke the immportal words, ‘Football is not a matter of life and death… I’s more important than that.’ These words are often interpreted as conveying how strongly fans feel about their team, or to explain the obsessions of players and managers. But they can be read in other ways. When Shankley spoke them in a TV interview in 1981, he was partly expressing regret that he was unable to properly enjoy life beyond football. He was describing an addiction to football that had clouded other parts of his life.
The secrets of the analysts
Premier league analysts were even more cautious than René when they spoke to me. As I talked to them about mathematical methods for analysing player tracking data on order to improve tactics they were very keen to hear my ideas, but they were not so keen to talk on the record about what they were currently doing. Howver, my overall impression remained the same as I described at the end of Chapter 9. The main reason that clubs don’t let talk their analysts in detail about player-tracking data isn’t because they are worried about their secrets will be revealed. Instead, they are worried that the opposition will find out that they don’t have any secrets to reveal. While maths is increasingly used in scouting, its potential uses in tactical development remain largely unexploited.