$\renewcommand{\vec}[1]{\mathbf{#1}}$ $\newcommand{\tens}[1]{\mathrm{#1}}$ $\newcommand{\R}{\mathbb{R}}$ $\newcommand{\suml}{\sum\limits}$ $\newcommand{deriv}[1]{\frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}#1}\,}$ $\newcommand{dd}[1]{\mathrm{d}#1}$
Posterity heuristics | blogjou

Daniel S. Milo

Good Enough - The Tolerance for Mediocrity in Nature and Society

p. 19
01 Oct 2023

Posterity heuristics


Posterity tends to make its choices with the help of two heuristics. One in incumbency bias: the earlier one enters the pantheon, the harder he or she is to expell, no matter the quality of the work celebrated. The other is laziness bias: posterity tends to select those who were already recognized by their own contemporaries; a lifetime of success is an important, if not strictly necessary, condition for posthumois lionization. Rare exceptions such as Gregory Mendel will console only inveterate optimists.