blogjou

Academic reward

If an academic publishes a novel research result at the forntier of knowledge in science or scholarshipy, he or she may reap a reward in the form of a professorsjip or a promotion, even if the result is later shown to be entirely wrong. However, clarifying the meaning of what has already been done (or picking out what is worth learning from what is not) is much less likely to advance an academic career. Humanity will be much better off when the reward structure is altered so that selection pressures on careers favor the sorting out of information as well as acquisition.

Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated

Abstract

• LULCCs contribute one third to cumulative anthropogenic CO$_2$ emissions from 1850 to 2019
• great important, high uncertainty
• integrate new high-resolution LULCC dataset (HILDA+) into BLUE
• lower $E_{LUC}$ compared to LUH2-based estimates
• decreasing global $E_{LUC}$ trends instead of increasing
• higher spatial resolution covers pristine-remaining areas better

1. Introduction

• net CO2 flux from land-use and land-cover change ($E_{LUC}$) is key component of global C cycle
• highly uncertain for many reasons
• HILDA+: Historic Land Dynamics Assessment, 1/100 x 1/100 degrees resolution
• allows BLUE to compare $E_{LUC}$ coming from different LULCC forcings, try to identify sources of uncertainty, candidates:
  • initialization time
  • spatial resolution to investigate role of successive transition
• BLUE compuationally efficient, hence high resolution of HILDA+ can be used
• 0.001 degrees would be even better for field-scale resolution of 1 ha
• satellite data cannot be used directly because of mix of anthropogenic and environmental effects
• goal: highlight spatial and temporal uncertainties in $E_{LUC}$ related to
  • LULCC reconstructions
  • resolution of LULCC forcing
  • initialization year

2. Methodology

• includes C transfer to pools of different lifetimes
• BLUE simulations with 3 different inputs (HILDA+ at 0.25 and 0.01 degrees, LUH2 at 0.25 degrees)
• with HILDA+ 0.25 four different initialization years: 1900, 1920, 1940, 1960
• more initialization dates with model HYDE3.2 based on LUH2
• HILDA+ does not provide information and wood harvest and does not distinguish between primary and secondary land, hence preprocessing required

3. Land-use change emission based on HILDA+ and LUH2

• divergent $E_{LUC}$ trends
• gross fluxes smaller with HILDA+
• lower resolution, higher component fluxes, lower resolution leads to much more in-cell transitions
• inititialization year leads to small changes if initialized at least 60 yr earlier

4. Discussion

• alignment of results depends on regions
• disagreement of LULCC datasets since 2000 needs to be solved
• implementation of shifting cultivation needs to be revised
• spatial resolution has significant influence
• effect of “successive transitions” probably also important for DGVMs and other BKMs
• initializiation of 60 years prior to analyzed period seems sufficient

5. Conclusions

…

Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration

Abstract

• assimilate observation-based time series of woody vegetation carbon densities into bookkeeping model (BKM)
• disentangle C fluxes from woody vegetation into anthropogenic and environmental contributions
• data assimilation vastly improves BKM
• global woody vegetation C sink is weaker and more suceptible to interannual variations and extrem events than estimated by other models
• model data integration important

Introduction

• the Global Carbon Project annually updates the Global Carbon Budget (GCB)
• net land-atmosphere exchange of CO2 anthroppgenic fluxes from land use and land-use induced land cover change activities (LULCC) $+$ fluxes due to environmental processes = $E_{LUC} + S_{LAND}$
• $E_{LUC}$ estimated with semi-empirical BKMs
  • $\pm65\,\%$ uncertainty (for one standard deviation)
    • different assumptions on amount of C contained per unit area (C density) contributes much to uncertainty
    • based on contemporary C stocks, leads to error simulation the past (bookkeeping error)
  • simulate emissions due to LULCC in absence of environmental fluxes by combining assumptions on amount of C contained in vegetation and soils and empirical decay functions
• $S_{LAND}$ estimated with process based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)
  • $\pm19\,\%$
    • different parametrizations
    • whether and how vegetation and soil processes are captured (found from model intercomparison project TRENDY)
  • account additionally (to BKM) for environmental effects on different C pools, simulate biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis
  • loss of additional sink capacity (LASC): larger forested areas unde rpre-industrial land cover allow more C accumulation under favorable conditions (elevated CO$_2$), DGVMs without LULCC do not correct for that
• satellite data can reduce uncertainties, but comes with limitations
  • only gross fluxes/sub-component fluxes
  • difficult to distringuish anthropogenic from environmental fluxes
  • restriction to committed fluxes: biomass loss considered flux, except when fate explicitly tracked (legacy fluxes)
• propose approach to overcome BKP and satellite limitations
  • decompose observed fluxes into $E_{LUC}$ and $S_{LAND}$
  • based on time series of global woody vegetation C densities (2000-20019)
  • time series assimilated into BKM BLUE (Bookkeeping of Land Use Emissions) model

Results

A model-data integration framework for separating anthropogenic and environmental carbon fluxes

• $C_{B,trans} = $net effects of anthropogenic and environmeltal changes based on time series mention earlier
• $C_{B,fixed} = $effects of anthropogenic changes based on Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset
• $S_{LAND,B} = \Delta C_{B, trans} - \Delta C_{B,fixed}$
  • should not be used to compute GCB, for instance litter, dead wood and soil dynamics are ignored; delayed fluxes happen here immediately (decomposition)
  • no bookkeeping error after 2000

Anthropogenic effects (LULCC) on global woody vegetation carbon

• transient run shows higher C stocks, probably because of effects of elevated CO$_2$
• leads also to higher emissions caused by clearing and harvesting
• such emsissions not outbalanced by higher C uptake
• major land-use transitions in BLUE: clearing, harvest, abandonment

Environmental effects on global woody vegetation carbon

• TRENDY simulations assume current CO$_2$ levels in the past and hence overestimate C biomass
• interannual variabilty mainly due to environmental effects
• $S_{LAND,B}$ shows smaller sink than TRENDY estimates
• interannual variabbility (IAV) computed as coefficient of variation
• strong positive correlation between annual mean air temperature anomaly and and annualt anomaly in forest biomass
• eastern North America (NAM): air temperature and radioation limiting effects of growth, western NAM: precipitation and soil moisture
• higher temperature also increase heterotrophic respiration, working agains ositive growth effect
• DGVMs underestimate negative effects of drought on sink strength, often heat and water stress on plant productivity not modeled
• forest degradation implicit in the data now, has strong effect

Discussion

• integration of observation into models crucial
• budget imbalance ($B_{\mathrm{IM}}$) is measure of uncertainty in estimated terms of GCB, describes difference between emissions and sinks on land, ocean, and atmosphere
• atmospheric growth rate can ($G_{ATM}$) be estimated with confidence
• natural C sinks on land and ocean uncertain
• $S_{LAND}$ as sink should increase due to C fertilization and hence $B_{\mathrm{IM}}$ should increase, but it does not, hence $S_{LAND}$ probably not accurate
• possible improvements:
  • include non-woody vegetation C
  • sub-annual time scales: capture intra-annual response to extreme events
  • different measurements should be consistent in space and time

Methods

…

My ideas

• instead of computing correlations on model output data, try causal inference computations

Quick overview

Quick overview

Our wedding party consists of three parts:

• Casual get-together (Thursday, 2024-07-11, 17:00)

  Casual getting together of everybody from near and far to get to know each other at Sportplatz Biene, Neuhaus-Schierschnitz.

  Dress code: barbecue, garden party

• Official wedding ceremony (Friday, 2024-07-12, 13:30)

  The official ceremony will take place at 13:30 at the castle in Neuhaus-Schierschnitz. Guests are supposed to arrive no later than 13:00. The ceremony will last about 45-60 minutes.

  Dress code: festive

• Wedding celebration (Friday, 2024-07-12, 15:30)

  The wedding party will take place in Rebhan’s Business und Wellness Hotel in Neukenroth/Stockheim. The party starts with the arrival of the newly-weds around 16:00 and is planned with an open end.

  Dress code: festive

Schneller Überblick

Schneller Überblick

Unsere Hochzeitsfeier besteht aus drei Teilen:

• Zwanglose Zusammenkunft (Donnerstag, 11.07.2024, 17:00)

  Zwangloses Zusammenkommen von Nah und Fern zum Kennenlernen auf dem Sportplatz Biene, Neuhaus-Schierschnitz.

  Kleiderordnung: Barbecue, Gartenparty

• Offizielle feierliche Trauung (Freitag, 12.07.2024, 13:30)

  Die offizielle Trauung findet um 13:30 Uhr auf der Burg in Neuhaus-Schierschnitz statt. Die Anreise der Gäste sollte bis spätestens um 13:00 Uhr erfolgen. Die Zeremonie dauert etwa 45-60 Minuten.

  Kleiderordnung: festlich

• Hochzeitsfeier (Freitag, 12.07.2024, 15:30)

  Die Hochzeitsfeier findet anschließend im Rebhan’s Business und Wellness Hotel in Neukenroth/Stockheim statt. Die Party beginnt mit der Ankunft des Brautpaares gegen 16:00 Uhr und ist mit offenem Ende geplant.

  Kleiderordnung: festlich

Vista rápida

Vista rápida

Nuestro matrimonio consta de tres partes:

• Reunión informal (jueves, 11-07-2024, 17:00) Reunión informal de gente de cerca y de lejos para conocerse en el campo deportivo Biene, Neuhaus-Schierschnitz.
  
  Código de vestimenta: parrillada, fiesta en el jardín.

• Ceremonia oficial de boda (viernes, 12-07-2024, 13:30) La ceremonia oficial tendrá lugar a las 13:30 horas en el castillo de Neuhaus-Schierschnitz Los huéspedes deben llegar antes de las 13:00. La ceremonia durará entre 45 y 60 minutos.
  
  Código de vestimenta: festivo

• Celebración de boda (viernes, 2024-07-12, 15:30) La fiesta de boda tendrá lugar en el hotel Rebhan’s Business und Wellness Hotel en Neukenroth/Stockheim. La fiesta comienza con la llegada de los novios alrededor de las 16:00 horas y está prevista con un final abierto.
  
  Código de vestimenta: festivo

Get-together (Thursday, 2024-07-11, 17:00)

Thursday, 2024-07-11, 17:00

Casual get-together of everybody from near and far to get to know each other at Sportplatz Biene, Neuhaus-Schierschnitz.

• People Additional to official wedding guests also some additional local friends will be around.

• Location The location is a sports ground with a club house for a party inside and outside. There will be some music.

• Food and beverages We will serve Bratwurst and Rostbrätel (steaks) from the grill together with alcoholic and no-alcoholic drinks from the bar.

• Children The location is a sports ground with ample space and many balls for children to play.

• Transportation We will organize a shuttle transfer from the hotel to the sports ground and back (details yet to be figured out).

Zwanglose Zusammenkunft (Donnerstag, 2024-07-11, 17:00)

Donnerstag, 11.07.2024, 17:00 Uhr

Zwangloses Treffen von Nah und Fern zum Kennenlernen auf dem Sportplatz Biene, Neuhaus-Schierschnitz.

• Gäste Zusätzlich zu den offiziellen Hochzeitsgästen werden auch einige weitere lokale Freunde anwesend sein.

• Örtlichkeit Ein Sportplatz mit Vereinsheim für eine Party drinnen und draußen mit Musik.

• Essen und Getränke Wir servieren Bratwurst und Rostbrätel vom Rost sowie alkoholische und alkoholfreie Getränke von der Bar.

• Kinder Der Sportplatz bietet viel Platz und viele Bälle zum Spielen für Kinder.

• Logistik Wir organisieren einen Shuttle-Transfer vom Hotel zum Sportplatz und zurück (Details werden noch geklärt).

Reunión informal - parrillada (jueves, 2024-07-11, 17:00)

Jueves, 2024-07-11, 17:00

Realizaremos una reunión informal de bienvenida a familiares y amigos para conocernos en el campo deportivo Biene, Neuhaus-Schierschnitz..

• Invitados Además de los invitados oficiales a la boda, también estarán presentes algunos amigos locales.

• Ubicación La ubicación es un campo deportivo con una casa club lo que permite estar dentro y fuera. Habrá música.

• Alimentos y bebidas Serviremos Bratwurst y Rostbrätel (filetes) a la parrilla junto con bebidas con y sin alcohol del bar.

• Niños El lugar es un campo deportivo con amplio espacio y muchas pelotas para que jueguen los niños.

• Transporte Organizaremos un traslado desde el hotel hasta el campo deportivo y viceversa (los detalles aún están por determinar).

Wedding ceremony (Friday, 2024-07-12, 13:30)

Friday, 2024-07-12, 13:30

The official ceremony will take place at 13:30 at the castle in Neuhaus-Schierschnitz. Guests are supposed to arrive no later than 13:00. The ceremony will last about 45-60 minutes.

• People The castle allows no more than 50 guests, which means that some party guests will not be able to follow the official ceremony. Please carefully check your invitation.

• Location The location is a castle from the 14th century, which comes with some consequences. For once, it is located on a small hill and parking is allowed only at the foot of the hill, to the right directly after the entrance gate. Only in special cases cars are allowed to drive all the way up to the castle, for instance to deliver bride and groom and other people who can walk badly uphill. Please get in touch with us if you needs to drive all the way up. Keep in mind that an uphill walk of about five minutes can become cumbersome depending on the type of shoes you choose.

• Beverages The Förderverein Burg Neuhaus will offer beer and alcohol-free beverages as well as some sparkling wine after the ceremony.

• Children Due to our setting at the castle accommodating up to 50 guests, we kindly ask that only immediate familiy children (Felix, Clara, Bastian, Amelie) join us for the ceremony. We will arange a child care for the other little ones at the hotel in the meanwhile. Should you have any concerns or questions or want to lend us a hand, feel free to reach out to us.

• Transportation We will organize the transport from the hotel to the castle with departure at the hotel at 12:45. Guests who organize their arrival to the castle on their own are advised not to arrive later than 13:00 at the castle. After the ceremony there will be an organized service to bring the guests back to the hotel to the wedding party.

  Please let us know whether you plan to use the organized transportation service to or from the castle or both to simplify our planning.