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blogjou

It seems like at least the European CORONA crisis is coming to an end, so I need another socially accepted excuse for never being around anywhere. A blog!

  • Simple questions with complicated answers are always asked by dull students...

    Simple questions with complicated answers are always asked by dull students. Only intelligent students have been trainedto ask complicated questions with simple answers - as any teacher knows (and only teachers think there are any simple questions with simple answers).

  • Communicating scientific uncertainty

    This paper tries to characterize, asses, and convey the uncertainties relevant to each of the following decision classes:

    • Decisions about action thresholds: Is it time to act?
    • Decisions with fixed options: Which is best?
    • Decisions about potential options: What is possible?

    • problem of too high or too little trust in science
    • scientists may overemphasize unimportant uncertainties and leave out others because of routine in the field
      • the right level depends on the decision to be made
    • nonpersuasive (informing choices) and persuasive (advocating for a choice) communication

    Decisions About Action Thresholds: Is It Time to Act?

    • threshold passed: time to act
    • uncertainty about the threshold

    Characterizing Uncertainty

    • science judged by apparent wisdom of recommendations
    • outcome bias: decisions judged by outcomes rather than by their wisdom
    • hindsight bias: foreseeability of outcomes exaggerated
    • distrust can be raised if messages are misaligned with decision maker’s values

    Assessing Uncertainty

    • states must be precisely defined: what is a tumor, what is a flood?
    • states/eventc can be observed directly (counting) or indirectly (through biomarkers)
    • make decision thought process transparent

    Conveying Uncertainty

    • standard words may have special meaning in certain fields
    • content of science-based knowledge should be based on what recipients know already

    Decisions with Fixed Options: Which Is Best?

    • recommendation or informing of choices

    Characterizing Uncertainty

    • probability distributions or parts of it or several distributions for different cases
    • scientific uncertainty might increase over time as research reveals unforeseen complications

    Assessing Uncertainty

    • uncertainty in data, in how data was collected, how it is treated
    • uncertainty of method or model
    • all kinds of assumptions made

    A recent experiment reduced this uncertainty for electricity field trials, finding a 2.7% reduction in consumption during a month in which residents received weekly postcards saying that they were in a study. That Hawthorne effect was as large as the changes attributed to actual programs in reports on other trials.

    Conveying Uncertainty

    When uncertainties arise from limits to the science, decision makers must rely on the community of scientists to discover and share problems, so as to preserve the commons of trust that it enjoys.

    For example, there is wide variation in how laypeople interpret the expressions of uncertainty improvised by the IPCC, in hopes of helping nonscientists.

    Decisions About Potential Options: What Is Possible?

    • decision makers try to create options

    When they choose to act, they may wish to create options with more certain outcomes in order to know better what they will get, or less certain ones in order to confuse rivals.

    Characterizing Uncertainty

    • graph of variables and their relations (influence diagram), run scenarios on it
    • uncertainties in both variables and their relationships
    • uncertainty from missing variables (knowingly or unknowingly)

    Assessing Uncertainty

    • run model with values sampled from probability distributions, compute sensitivity of predictions
    • assess uncertainty of factors that science typically ignores or takes for granted

    Conversely, aviation has reduced uncertainty by addressing human factor problems in instrument design (52) and cockpit team dynamics (53). Decision makers need to know which factors a field neglects and what uncertainty that creates.

    Conveying Uncertainty

    To create options, people need to know the science about how things work.

    • problem with unintuitive integration (dynamics, nonlinearities)

    Eliciting Uncertainty

    Science communication is driven by what audiences need to know, not by what scientists want to say.

    • standard format required that scientists can create and decision makers can rad

    Variability

    • use numerical values instead of unclear words (see IPCC)

    Internal Validity, External Validity

    • effects on credible intervals: they differ from confidence intervals because of internal (evaluation of studies) and external validity (extrapolation of rsults) and pedigree of scientific results

    Conclusion

    Performing these tasks demands commitment from scientists and from their institutions. It also demands resources for the direct costs of analysis, elicitation, and message development, and for the opportunity costs of having scientists spend time communicating uncertainty rather than reducing it (through their research).

  • In physics the truth is rarely perfectly clear...

    “In physics the truth is rarely perfectly clear, and that is certainly universally the case in human affairs. Hence, what is not surrounded by uncertainty cannot be the truth.”

  • I can live with doubt and uncertainty...

    “I can live with doubt and uncertainty,” he said. “I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.” He once defined science as belief in the ignorance of experts.

  • All these formidable talents...

    All these formidable talents have been subsumed by American media realities; who can match television news and talking heads, and even the daily New York Times, in self-parody? Reality in America is more grotesque and hilarious than any parodist could hope to trump.

  • As I lay dying...

    As I lay dying portrays the human condition as being catastrophic, with the nuclear family the most terrible of the catastrophes.

  • His spirit is ready...

    His spirit is ready (willing) and his flesh is not weak. He dies extraordinarily, to the music of his own: “Let it be.” No death in secular literature haunts the reader more. Why? Hamlet’s final words - “the rest is silence” - are spiritually ambiguous, yet I read them as anticipating annihilation rather than resurrection. Therein may be the best answer to the question “Why read Hamlet?” He does not die a vicarious atonement for us, but rather with the single anxiety of bearing a wounded name. Whether we ourselves expect annihilation or resurrection, we are likely to end caring about our name. Hamlet, the most charismatic and intelligent of all fictive characters, prefigures our hopes for courgae at our common end.

  • Proust defined friendship...

    Proust defined friendship as being “halfway between physical exhaustion and mental boredom,” and said of love that it was “ striking example of how little reality means to us.”

  • Of death, Proust remarks...

    Of death, Proust remarks that it cures us of the desire for immortality […].

  • Nietzsche, in one of his...

    Nietzsche, in one of his most Hamlet-like formulations, advised us that what we could find words for, was something already dead in our hearts, so that there was always some kind of contempt in the act of speaking.